Macro & Other Data > Inflation
28 articles
Two Catalysts, One Morning: ISM and Warsh Put the Rate Hike Narrative on Trial
Markets brace for volatility as Fed Chair Warsh speaks at Sintra and ISM data drops. We analyze potential scenarios for major assets and the bearish technical setup currently shaping Gold.
DXY Pulls Back From 14-Month High as Markets Brace for Early Jobs Report
As the U.S. dollar nears multi-year highs, markets pivot to a compressed week of high-stakes data, waiting on an early jobs report and analyzing Federal Reserve rate hike expectations.
Consumer Outlook Cracks 50 as Iran Fears Fade but Caution Lingers Amid Inflation Worries
June consumer sentiment improves on easing Iran fears but elevated inflation, a hawkish Fed, and tech pressure kept markets in the red.
Gold Reclaims $4,000, Is the Bloodbath Over or Is This Just Another ‘Dead Cat’ Bounce?
Gold reclaimed $4,000 after an in-line PCE print trimmed September hike odds from 68% to 63%. The structural bull case — central banks, real rates, a peak inflation narrative — is intact. But 298 tonnes of ETF gold sitting at a loss is a ceiling trad
Americans Keep Spending Despite High Rates. And That May Force the Fed to Hike Again
Americans kept spending in May despite surging costs, with income growth absorbing the pressure but the resilience that supports economic growth is the same force keeping a Fed rate hike firmly on the table.
Is the Oil Disinflation Already Doing the Fed's Work?
As markets price in Fed rate hikes, plummeting oil prices signal a shift. The true test for September won't be WTI crude; it will be whether core services inflation stays sticky.
May PCE Inflation Comes in Line, Clearing the Path for Micron-Fueled Rally to Run its Course
With the Fed given no reason to accelerate tightening, NQ futures extended gains and Micron's record open is now in play.
Nasdaq Bounces Back From Tech Washout on Micron Blowout Quarter: Can PCE Sustain the Recovery?
Nasdaq futures surged on Micron's historic beat, but with core PCE running well above the Fed's 2% target and a rate hike now on the table, Thursday's inflation print could make or break the AI-fueled recovery.
DXY at 13-Month Highs: Why the Fed Hike Trade Is the Only Trade Right Now
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is surging to 101.7 following a hawkish Fed outlook. Traders are pricing in September hike risks, impacting oil, gold, and equities ahead of Thursday’s critical PCE data.
Crude Steadies Near $73: Is the Floor Holding, and What Does It Mean for Inflation and Interest Rates?
With inventory deficits deep, supply recovery slow, and second-round inflation entrenched, the Fed's hawkish stance has room to run.
NQ Futures Break Below 30K as Post-Rebalance Hangover Collides With Rate Hike Reality, AI Debt Unwind
A hawkish Fed, fragile Middle East ceasefire, index rebalancing, and mounting doubts over debt-funded AI spending have converged to push Nasdaq-100 futures below a critical technical threshold ahead of three market-moving catalysts.
Beaten Down but Not Broken? Gold at $4,200 as China Buys, Goldman Cuts, and PCE Looms
Gold is entering the week battered by losses, stemming primarily from a hawkish Fed. Yet, China's central bank is buying, providing a floor as markets brace for Thursday's critical PCE print
Silver at $70 — The FOMC Setup That Could Restart the Rally Institutions Are Waiting For
Silver futures hover at $70 as the market anticipates the FOMC decision. With institutional targets high and industrial demand strong, will Fed Chair Warsh provide the dovish signal for a rally?
FOMC Meeting Preview: The Easing Bias Is Dead — But Will Warsh Hand the Market a Dovish Lifeline?
Kevin Warsh leads his first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair. With a divided committee and a US-Iran deal altering the inflation outlook, markets await his signal on the future of rate policy.
Bitcoin's $66K Bounce: Iran Deal or Dead Cat?
Three headwinds—the SpaceX IPO, Iran deal, and ETF outflows—have cleared. Yet, Bitcoin struggles to rip. Is it lingering scar tissue or hesitation ahead of the crucial FOMC meeting?
S&P 500 & Nasdaq Outlook: 3 Charts Mapping the Next Market Move
US markets rally on an Iran peace deal. We analyze sentiment, index divergence, and the impact of the historic SpaceX IPO on Nasdaq liquidity
Oil Breaks Below $80 for the First Time Since April — How Far Can the Iran-Deal Unwind Go?
Oil futures crashed below $80 amid a US-Iran peace deal on the Strait of Hormuz. While the war premium evaporates, physical supply constraints and OPEC+ price floors suggest limits to the sell-off.
Gold Surges Past $4,350 on Iran Deal — The Short Squeeze Is Real, But Is It a Trade?
Gold surged past $4,350 on news of an Iran peace deal, triggering a major short squeeze. Whether this rally holds or retraces depends entirely on Wednesday's critical FOMC decision.
Consumer Sentiment Snaps Three-Month Slide as Gas-Price Relief Tames Inflation Fears — For Now
US consumer sentiment rebounded in early June, with retreating inflation expectations offering a dovish signal days before the crucial FOMC decision.
Gold's Whiplash 24 Hours: From Six-Month Lows to a $4,200 Reclaim — And What Friday's Session Decides
Gold faces macro headwinds from interest rates and the SpaceX IPO. All eyes are on today's University of Michigan inflation data to see if the metal can sustain its current support above $4,000.
Dollar Index Holds the 100 Line After CPI — Why the Greenback's Floor Just Got Firmer
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is grinding higher, holding the 100 level as markets no longer expect Fed rate cuts. Despite nuanced inflation data, the dollar remains supported and is having a knock on effect across markets.
US May CPI Surges to 3-Year High on Energy; Core Inflation Stays Tame
Investors view the May report as one that could shape expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy path in the near term
Silver Sinks 5% — But Speculators Keep Leaning Long
Silver faces intense selling pressure as a strengthening dollar and hawkish rate bets fuel a market washout, overriding recent bullish positioning in the latest Commitment of Traders report.
The Dow Jones Advantage: Less Silicon, More Cyclicals as Semis Wobble
The Dow offers a resilient hedge against Nasdaq volatility by favoring value sectors over tech. This stability faces a test as traders brace for critical upcoming inflation data.
Why Wednesday's May CPI Report Could Trigger Outsized Moves Across Futures Markets
Surging gasoline prices, sticky shelter inflation, and a blowout jobs report have converged ahead of Wednesday's print, leaving stocks, bonds and the dollar at critical technical and fundamental inflection points.
Gold Under Pressure: Why the Metal's Biggest Enemy Right Now Isn't US-Iran Tensions — It's the Fed
Gold futures are sliding as Fed rate-hike fears outweigh Middle East geopolitical tensions. With expectations shifting, all eyes are now on Wednesday's CPI data to dictate the next move for the precious metal.
Will the ECB Deliver an Insurance Hike as Expected and Trigger a EUR/USD Rally?
The ECB is set for a June 11 "insurance" rate hike amid stagflation risks. We explore the impact on GDP growth and what this means for the EUR/USD outlook as markets brace for volatility
NFP Preview: The "Low-Hire, Low-Fire" Economy Faces Its Biggest Test Yet — Implications for the Dow Jones & Gold
The May Non-Farm Payrolls report arrives June 5 amid macroeconomic instability. With sticky inflation and a volatile labor market, this data is critical for the future of the Dow Jones and Gold prices.