Three headwinds—the SpaceX IPO, Iran deal, and ETF outflows—have cleared. Yet, Bitcoin struggles to rip. Is it lingering scar tissue or hesitation ahead of the crucial FOMC meeting?
Bitcoin touched $67,360 on Monday before giving back a chunk of those gains — and that fade tells you everything you need to know about where the market actually stands.
BTC is holding near $65,405 as of Tuesday, up just 0.3% over 24 hours and 4.8% on the week. The number looks constructive. The behaviour underneath it is a lot more complicated.
Three headwinds cleared in roughly 72 hours: the SpaceX IPO is done, the Iran deal was announced, and the 13-day spot ETF outflow streak snapped. Bitcoin should be ripping. It's not. That gap between catalyst and price response is the story going into Wednesday's FOMC.
Three Headwinds Clear at Once — So Why Isn't BTC Ripping?
To understand why the rally feels fragile, you need to understand what put the market on its back in the first place.
Since mid-May, US spot Bitcoin ETFs bled approximately $5.75 billion in net outflows, the most severe ETF selling since these products launched in early 2024. That relentless drain dragged BTC from above $73,000 down to a 2026 low of $59,275 in the first week of June, leaving more than 50% of all Bitcoin supply sitting in unrealized loss, a condition that has historically aligned with major cycle bottoms.
Three things were blamed. First, the SpaceX IPO.
SPCX priced on June 11 at $135 per share, the largest IPO in history at a $1.75 trillion valuation — and the lead-up sucked capital out of crypto as retail and institutions scrambled to fund allocations.
Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick flagged the connection directly: "The SpaceX IPO may sound the end of ETF selling — anecdotally BTC ETF holders have been selling to free up cash to enter the IPO."
Not everyone bought that explanation. Sygnum Bank CIO Fabian Dori argued the ETF outflows traced more cleanly to the unwinding of cash-and-carry arbitrage basis trades than to SPCX allocation pressure.
Either way, the selling is largely done now: SPCX debuted with a 19% first-session gain, closing near $161 and pushing its market cap above $2.1 trillion. The IPO overhang has cleared.
Second, the Iran conflict. The US-Iran war that erupted in late February triggered a near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments move — sending Oil above $100 and hardwiring an inflation risk premium across every asset class. Higher energy-driven CPI (May printed at a three-year high of 4.2% YoY) collapsed rate-cut expectations and injected a live rate-hike threat into the market. Risk assets, and crypto above all, re-rated lower.
Third, the ETF bleeds itself — a self-reinforcing feedback loop where outflows begat price weakness, which begat more outflows.
Now all three are reversing simultaneously. Trump declared the Iran deal complete, awaiting signatures. Oil dropped 5% Monday, touching lows near $80. ETF inflows returned, $85.9 million on June 12, led by BlackRock's IBIT at $57 million and Fidelity at $18 million, the strongest single session in roughly a month.
Source: Farside Investors
Strategy added another 1,587 BTC for $100 million between June 8 and 14, lifting total holdings to 846,842 BTC. On-chain, whales pulled more than 11,000 BTC off exchanges — a classic accumulation signal. Long-term holders now control approximately 16.3 million BTC near all-time highs, having added over 2 million BTC during the bear market.
The setup looks clean. The price response doesn't. BTC tagged $67,217 and immediately reversed. That's not the behaviour of a market ready to run.
Let us take a look at why that is the case.
The Scar Tissue Problem
Bitcoin Magazine's market commentary captured it bluntly: "The ceasefire news pushed Bitcoin to $66,000 on thin weekend liquidity, but traders who have been burned twice already this year are not fully redeploying yet. The April deal collapsed."
In crypto terms: the geopolitical relief trade has been front-run, and the confirmation event is still 72 hours away.
The Real Decider: Warsh's Dot Plot
Everything discussed above is second-order to what lands Wednesday at 2pm ET.
The June 16–17 FOMC is Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair, and it includes an updated dot plot. The rate decision is essentially settled at 97%+ odds of a hold at 3.50%–3.75%. But the dot plot projection, specifically whether the March forecast of a single 2026 cut gets replaced by a hike signal is the live variable that will determine Bitcoin's next directional move.
Two scenarios define the trade:
Warsh leans dovish — frames May's 4.2% CPI as geopolitical rather than structural, notes the Iran deal eases the energy inflation driver, removes the easing bias without adding explicit hike language. In this scenario, rate-hike risk reprices lower, real yields ease, risk appetite expands, and BTC has a clear runway toward $68,500 and $70,000. The CME gap at $75,000–$79,000 becomes the medium-term target.
Warsh leans hawkish — dot plot shifts the median projection toward an active 2026 hike, press conference tone emphasises persistent services CPI and labour market heat independently of oil. In this scenario, the 19 basis points of year-end hike risk currently priced immediately reprices wider, the dollar catches a bid, and BTC retests $63,300–$64,000 support with $60,000 as the breakdown level to watch.
Standard Chartered's Kendrick is firmly in the bull camp. Looking back from year-end with Bitcoin at $100,000, he wrote, "this was the buying zone we all wanted." His thesis: the SpaceX liquidity vacuum is done, Iran relief eases macro pressure, and fresh ETF inflows confirm the bottom.
JPMorgan is more cautious — flagging Strategy's potential for further BTC sales to fund dividend obligations on STRC preferred shares, and noting the CLARITY Act's legislative path as a key H2 wildcard.
Bitcoin Futures Four-Hour Chart, June 16, 2026
Source: TradingView
Bitcoin futures are undergoing a short-term bullish recovery after establishing firm support at the $60,000 psychological level.
Price has recently reclaimed the 100-day MA (blue line) at $65,115, currently trading around $65,400. While this breakout shifts immediate momentum to the upside, the macro trend remains cautious due to the descending 200-day MA overhead at $71,556.
For a full trend reversal, bulls must clear the major resistance zone between $70,000 and the 200-day MA.
Meanwhile, the RSI sits neutrally at 52, suggesting balanced momentum with room for continuation if the newly reclaimed 100-day MA support holds.
The AI IPO Pipeline: The Next Rotation Risk
One more structural variable worth flagging for longer-horizon positioning. The SpaceX IPO may be complete, but Xapo Bank's June commentary makes clear the playbook is not done: Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs are expected in late 2026, both larger or comparably sized events that could trigger the same capital rotation dynamic that drained the ETF complex in May and early June.
If the SPCX pattern holds, both events represent scheduled liquidity headwinds for BTC — temporary and reversible once the IPO allocation rush passes, but real in the weeks leading up to each listing.
Traders positioning for a $100K move through year-end need to map these dates carefully and treat each pre-IPO window as a potential ETF outflow trigger.