Equity futures attempted to claw their way back on Wednesday morning after one of the ugliest two-session stretches of the year for technology, as investors await key Micron results and U.S. data
Equities failed to sustain early gains made in Wednesday's session as macro concerns stifled the recovery attempt. The major averages came into the session after one of the ugliest two-session stretches of the year for technology.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 inched higher at the open and in the morning session, as investors returned to technology shares following Wednesday's sharp selloff that saw the Nasdaq 100 lose over $1 trillion in market value.
However, over the last three hours or so the Nasdaq has turned red on the day with the S&P 500 futures following suit. For now it appears that the macro regime that was driving the selling hasn’t fundamentally changed and thus any rally may be seen as a selling opportunity.
The Micron Factor
Micron's results after the bell could offer crucial insight into the outlook for the memory and AI sector after a blazing rally, with the stock up 268% for the year.
Wall Street needs to see HBM revenue acceleration beyond Q2's $1 billion feat and confirmation that the record 81% gross margin guidance holds. A beat with strong Q4 guidance restores conviction in the AI memory thesis. A miss or soft forward guidance risks reopensTuesday's lows on NQ overnight.
Looking ahead to Thursday, three heavyweight reports drop simultaneously: May PCE inflation, the Q1 GDP final estimate, and May durable goods orders. All three carry direct repricing risk and could stoke volatility.
PCE: The Number That Could Decide September
May PCE is the headline event. Consensus from FactSet puts the annual headline PCE rate at 4.1% — its highest level since April 2023 — with economists widely expecting May to mark this year's inflation peak as lower oil prices and easing tariff effects potentially curb pressure in coming months.
This matters because the June 17 dot plot — which already jolted markets — revised the Fed's year-end PCE projection up 0.9 points to 3.6%. A print near the 4.1% consensus confirms the Fed's inflation read is, if anything, conservative. Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and UBS all expect the May reading to largely reflect what was already seen in May CPI and PPI data — with energy the primary driver.
GDP Final: Downward Revision Risk
The final Q1 GDP estimate is expected to confirm the second estimate of a 1.6% annualised growth rate, which was downwardly revised from the 2.0% advance print, driven by softer consumer spending at 1.4% and weaker private investment.
Residential investment fell for a fifth consecutive quarter, down 6.3% annualised, while net trade subtracted 1.25 percentage points from growth as imports surged 21.1% against exports' 13.1% growth.
A further downward revision to the final would add a stagflationary dimension to the narrative — slowing growth plus sticky inflation — the most difficult backdrop for the Fed to navigate and the most bearish combination for ES and NQ.
Durables: The Business Spending Proxy
May durable goods orders, due for release Thursday, faces a tough comparison. April durable goods orders surged 7.9% to $346 billion, the strongest increase since May 2025, though the gain was heavily distorted by a 165.9% spike in non-defense aircraft orders.
Excluding transportation, orders rose just 1.1%. The closely watched core capex proxy — non-defense capital goods ,excluding aircraft, will signal whether business investment momentum is genuine or an aircraft-led noise.
The Cascade Effect and S&P 500 Outlook
S&P 500 Four-Hour Chart, June 24, 2026
Source: TradingView
Looking at the S&P 500 four-hour chart and a death cross appears to be imminent.
Given that price is below both the 100 and 200-day MAs already, a death cross does not bode well at all, hinting at further downside ahead.
For now, immediate support rests at 7,380 before the 7,300 comes into focus.
On the upside, price needs to work its way back above the MAs for a meaningful recovery to take place.
The scenario matrix is straightforward. A hot PCE print — headline at or above 4.1%, core above 0.37% monthly — maps directly onto: the U.S. dollar index extending toward 102, gold retesting the $4,000 handle with conviction, and ES/NQ opening lower as the September hike trades from probability to near-certainty.
A soft print reverses each of those — but given May CPI already landed at 4.2% on a 23% annual energy surge, the path of least resistance is clear.