E-mini S&P 500 futures are in recovery mode after a sharp post-FOMC selloff. While the 4H uptrend remains intact, watch the 7,578–7,580 resistance zone to see if the current bounce can continue
E-mini S&P 500 futures are clawing back ground after Wednesday's hawkish shock, with price stabilizing around 7,560-7,580 following the violent post-FOMC drop.
The structure across the 4H, 1H, and 15M timeframes tells a consistent story: a market in recovery mode, but still fighting overhead supply left behind by Kevin Warsh's first meeting at the helm.
Four-Hour: Uptrend Intact, But the Air Is Thinning
S&P 500 Futures (ES1!) Four-Hour Chart, June 18, 2026
Source: TradingView
The broader 4H structure remains constructive. Price is still trading above the rising trendline drawn off the June 11 swing low near 7,232, and the 200-day MA (orange, 7,471) continues to slope higher beneath price, a sign of confirmation that the longer-term uptrend hasn't broken.
That said, the rally has clearly lost momentum. The move stalled just below 7,636-7,648, the recent-2026 high, and Wednesday's FOMC reaction candle sliced straight through the 100-day MA temporarily on heavy volume.
Price has since reclaimed the 100-day MA (7,519) which is constructive, as it does provide an abundance of support just below the current levels.
RSI near 52 hints at bullish momentum with the 7,648 handle a possibility. A four-hour candle break and close below the 7,470 handle would invalidate the bullish bias.
One-Hour: A Rounded Bottom Fighting a Key Confluence Zone
S&P 500 Futures (ES1!) One-Hour Chart, June 18, 2026
Source: TradingView
The 1H chart shows the more granular damage.
Wednesday's selloff cratered through 7,500 into the 7,470s testing the 200-day MA before buyers stepped in, and price has since carved out a rounding bottom — a classic post-shock basing pattern.
Price is currently testing a key confluence level where both the 50 and 100-day MAs rest around 7,570.
Acceptance above the 50 and 100-day MAs could be a sign of a short-term rally toward recent highs and may be seen as a potential short-term opportunity for bulls.
Conversely a rejection here could send the index back toward the FOMC lows around the 7,470 handle
15-Minute: Short-Term Bulls in Control, But How Long Can it Last?
S&P 500 Futures (ES1!) M15 Chart, June 18, 2026
Source: TradingView
Zooming into the 15M chart, the most recent price action is unambiguously bullish in the short term. After tagging the session low near 7,540, price staged a sharp impulsive rally through 7,560.
The 50-day MA (7,552) has flipped above the 100-day MA (7,551) for the first time since the selloff, with price now trading above both the MAs, now serving as a crucial support barrier.
The catch: this move has come fast, and RSI at 54 is climbing, which would hint at further upside. The sharp spike earlier in the U.S. session to 7,578 followed by an equally sharp rejection back to 7,540 shows two-sided, high-volatility conditions rather than orderly continuation — typically a precursor to consolidation.
Watch 7,550 confluence area as first support on any pullback, with 7,578-7,580 as the level bulls need to clear to confirm the next leg higher rather than another fade.
The Bottom Line
All three timeframes point to the same conclusion: ES is in repair mode after the Kevin Warsh driven sell-off, with short-term momentum (15M) leading the recovery, intermediate structure (1H) basing but capped, and the higher timeframe (4H) trend technically intact but facing significant resistance hurdles ahead.
The 7,578-7,580 area is the resistance zone that decides whether this becomes trend continuation or just a corrective bounce inside a larger range. 7,540 and 7,472 are the support levels that matter if the bounce fails.