Silver is down over 4% today, nearing $60/oz amid hawkish Fed repricing and signs of cracking industrial demand. Institutions remain divided on the outlook for H2 2026.
Silver (SI) has now shed over 4% on Tuesday morning, nearing the crucial $60/oz handle. The sell-off is largely being driven by hawkish Fed repricing but there are signs that industrial demand may be cracking as well. This makes the outlook for silver a complicated one.
The Mechanics of the Collapse
Silver has been on a descent since the January 29 highs around $121.60/oz. However, the sell-off has accelerated of late as rate cut hopes evaporated with markets now eyeing potential rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Traders now see an 88% chance of a rate hike in December, up from 61% before the Fed meeting last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, as investors price in hawkish monetary policy under new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.
The hawkish repricing on the rate cut front has led the U.S. dollar near a one-year high.
US Dollar Index Daily Chart, June 23, 2026
Source: TradingView
Silver prices should be gaining some support from industrial demand which does not appear to be happening. Industrial demand is not disappearing, but it is being overwhelmed in the short term by the rate-driven sell-off in the monetary side of the trade.
What the Institutions Are Saying
Forecasts have diverged sharply. UBS cut its year-end silver target to $80/oz, with strategists Wayne Gordon and Dominic Schnider citing weaker photovoltaic demand and the narrowing supply deficit to roughly 60–70 million ounces from a prior estimate of 300 million.
UBS's preferred trade is not a directional long, they view selling downside risk to harvest carry over the next three months as attractive.
On the bull side, Goldman Sachs expects silver to average between $85 and $100/oz for the year, driven by the green energy transition and industrial applications, while Citigroup carries a $110/oz target for H2 2026 built on physical supply shortages and accelerating industrial consumption.
A Reuters analyst survey places the average 2026 consensus at approximately $79.50/oz.
Key Levels and the Path Forward
The critical resistance zone sits at $66.30. A sustained daily close above this level could confirm a bullish continuation toward $72, while a breakdown below key support risks a pullback toward $50/oz before buyers re-enter.
Silver Four-Hour Chart, June 23, 2026
Source: TradingView
The macro pivot that unlocks SI to the upside remains the Fed. The single most important variable for H2 2026 is the Fed's rate path and thus this week's PCE data release.
A softer than expected PCE print could help Silver recover and bounce toward the immediate resistance level at 66.30/oz.
Until PCE on Thursday, Silver remains a macro hostage that is under pressure..