Gold breaks $5,000 as shutdown fears and safe-haven demand as traders eye key policy catalysts this week.
Gold futures on the CME Group’s COMEX broke above $5,000 per troy ounce on Monday, clearing a major psychological and technical milestone as the precious metal continues to benefit from strong safe-haven demand.
The immediate trigger for the milestone move is the looming fears of a fresh government shutdown. Following a shooting in Minneapolis, Senate Democrats have threatened to vote against a federal funding package if major changes aren’t made to the homeland security provisions.
After the federal government was shut down for a record 43 days late last year due to the wrangling over the funding bill, it reopened on Nov. 12, 2025, after lawmakers from either side of the aisle reached an agreement to end the stalemate.
Making Sense Of Gold Rally:
Gold futures broke above a short-term consolidation move in March 2024 and have been on a strong uptrend since, with the rally’s slope steepening in September last. The rally is being driven by a combination of rate-cut expectations, heightened geopolitical tensions, and broader macroeconomic uncertainty. Gold supply remains constrained, though conditions are more favorable than in fellow safe-haven silver.
JPMorgan stated in a report released last week that it expects gold to reach $5,200 to $5,300 by the end of 2026, with the firm maintaining a bullish outlook over the next 12 months. Among the demand drivers, the firm flagged are central bank purchases, and demand from retailers who are looking to diversify their portfolios amid declining cash rates. Under President Trump, the firm expects gold demand to remain robust due to persistent concerns about his administration’s expansionary fiscal policy and a potential increase in dollar diversification due to trade tensions and heightened geopolitical risks.
Key Levels To Watch For
- The $5,000 level could serve as a key support level for gold on potential pullbacks.
- Traders can use JPMorgan’s 2026 price forecast of $5,200–$5,300 as a near-term upside target, particularly while prices remain above the $5,000 breakout level.
- In the eventuality of a reversal, the $4,395-$4,580 area could serve as a strong support zone.
Chart source: TradingView
Upcoming Catalysts Gold Traders Should Watch
A slew of catalysts are slated for the week that could have a bearing on gold’s trajectory. Progress — or lack thereof — on the U.S. funding bill and DHS appropriations will be a major driver in the short term. Blocking Homeland Security funding over policy disagreements would increase risk aversion that favor gold. Among the other catalysts are:
- Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decision due Wednesday
- President Trump’s public speech in Clive, Iowa, on Tuesday
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow update
- U.S. producer price inflation (PPI) report
- U.S. Treasury auctions
- Weekly jobless claims data
- Earnings reports from three Magnificent Seven companies
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