U.S. existing home sales declined in March amid weak demand, limited inventory, and higher mortgage rates, leaving the housing market constrained and recovery slower and uncertain.
The U.S. housing market outlook remains tepid as falling consumer confidence and a sluggish job market hamper growth. The National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) existing home sales report for March released Monday confirmed the trend.
Crunching the Numbers: Sales of already existing housing stock fell 3.6% month over month (MoM) in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million units, marking the lowest level since June 2025. This also trailed the consensus estimate of 4.07 million units.
Existing Home Sales
Source: NAR
Sales fell MoM across the four geographies, namely the West, South, Northwest and Midwest. Single-family home sales, which accounted for more than 91% of the total sales, fell 3.5%, while condominium and co-op sales fell 5.4%.
Commenting on the data, NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun said, “March home sales remained sluggish and below last year’s pace. Lower consumer confidence and softer job growth continue to hold back buyers.”
Year over year (YoY), existing home sales slipped 1%.
Existing home inventories climbed to 4.1 months of supply in March from 4 in the year-ago period and 3.8 in February. Yet Dr. Yun said inventory was a major constraint. “The inventory-to-sales ratio, or supply-to-demand ratio, is below historical norms,” he said. “An additional 300,000 to 500,000 homes for sale would help bring the market closer to normal conditions and allow consumers to make purchase decisions without feeling rushed.”
The median sales price of an existing home rose 1.4% YoY to $408,800, marking a new record for the month of March. On a positive note, the price growth has helped the typical homeowner accumulate $128,100 in housing wealth over the past six years, the NAR economist said.
Median Existing Home Sales Price
Source: NAR
Meanwhile, citing higher mortgage rates, NAR reduced its existing home sales growth estimate for 2026 to 4%. The association noted that the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate was 6.18% in March, up from 6.05% in February.
What Economist Says: The housing market is still stuck, said economist and Bankrate Washington Bureau Chief Mark Hamrick. The current housing picture is at least directionally consistent with the idea of stagflation: soft sales activity paired with ongoing price pressure, he said.
“Housing is not frozen, but it is constrained, and the recovery path looks slower and bumpier than it did before,” Hamrick said.