Markets brace for volatility as Iran tensions persist and inflation concerns halt rate cut hopes. Traders are also pivoting to the massive SpaceX IPO, with the Nasdaq debut set for tomorrow
The bid is back for now. S&P 500 (ES) futures crossed the 7,300 handle after the S&P 500 cash index closed at 7,266.99 on Wednesday, down a steep 1.6%.
NQ is leading the rebound, up more than 2%, topping 29,000, as chip stocks, led by Nvidia, advanced solidly.
The Russell 2000 Index also joined the party, underscoring the risk-on mood in the market.
What is the VIX Telling Us?
The real fireworks are in volatility — the VIX has seen a notable drop since the start of the US-Iran conflict, declining around 47% from the pre war highs of 31.69 to a low of 15.5 before entering a period of consolidation below the 20 handle.
Since the US jobs report on Friday June 5 though the VIX has spiked toward the 23 handle as markets appear jittery once more. The rise in the VIX with an increase in the daily range is usually a sign of a market reacting to a systemic shock or major geopolitical risk event. One could argue that we have had both over the last 7 days.
Volatility (VIX) Index, June 11, 2026
Source: TradingView
Is the Selloff Over?
If there is one caveat for market participants to support the idea that the selloff may be over, it would be that historically the S&P 500 typically posts a 5% to 10% pullback at least once a year. With March already delivering a double-digit decline, the next dip may be more contained. Markets rarely take two big hits in quick succession.
Source: Isabelnet
Does that mean that the current selloff may be nearing its end?
What's Actually Driving Markets Today - Trump Says Iran Strikes Cancelled
Two forces are fighting for the wheel. First, Iran.
Futures bounced after the latest round of U.S. strikes "came to a swift end," but Trump has already reversed tone, threatening to hit Tehran "very hard tonight" and seize the Kharg Island export hub. With Brent back near $94.73 and Iran naming Musk's Starlink assets as targets the day before the SpaceX float, this is a headline-driven tape, gap risk into Friday is real.
Second, the inflation repricing has teeth. May CPI printed a three-year-high 4.2%, energy up 23.5%, and today's PPI ripped 1.1% on the month for a 6.5% annual rate, the hottest since late 2022. The cut narrative is dead.
CME FedWatch shows a 96% hold at the June 17 meeting under incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, but hike odds now sit near 39% by October and above 50% before year-end. That's why yields are firmer, financials are soft, and Russell can't catch a bid.
According to the NY Post a short white ago, Iran submitted a draft agreement with the US through Qatari mediators. This is another headline which could stoke volatility and one which has become a regular occurrence of late.
President Trump posted to TruthSocial a short while later, stating that planned strikes scheduled for this evening are cancelled. Markets saw a notable uptick in sentiment when the news first broke.
Source: TruthSocial
These are the type of headlines which could stoke volatility, something which has become a regular occurrence of late.
This remains a fluid situation so traders should be wary and keep a close watch on any announcements or developments.
Attention Will Start to Turn to the SpaceX IPO
As the Thursday winds down market participants may start to turn their attention to the SpaceX IPO.
SpaceX (SPCX) priced at $135, a ~$75B raise at a ~$1.77T valuation, with order books closing tonight and a Nasdaq debut tomorrow.
Demand reportedly topped $250B. The mechanic that matters for index traders: the new 15-day Nasdaq-100 fast-entry rule means QQQ trackers could be forced to be buyers within weeks — funded by pro-rata selling across Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet.
S&P 500 inclusion was rejected on June 4; earliest realistic window is mid-2027.
Fore more, read The SpaceX IPO & Nasdaq: Everything Traders Need to Know About the SPCX Launch
Scenarios for the Session and Beyond
S&P 500 Futures One Hour Chart, June 11, 2026
Source: TradingView
Bull: Iran headlines stay quiet, ES reclaims 7,300, breaks the 100-day MA at 7385 and the AI complex leads NQ back toward 28,900. Vol keeps bleeding.
Base: Choppy, headline-whipped grind. S&P holds 7,250–7,320, traders de-risk into the SpaceX listing and the weekend.
Bear: A fresh "tonight" strike confirmation reignites the oil bid, S&P loses 7,250 and the hike-repricing trade drags small-caps and financials to new lows.
Position light into the close — this is a tape that can reprice on a single Truth Social post.