OPEC+ kept output unchanged, and geopolitical fears eased, sending oil down over 5%, with traders eyeing key $61 support levels.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), which met on Sunday, chose to leave production unchanged, dragging crude oil futures lower at the start of the week.
The decision affirming the production quota freezing came despite crude oil spiking in January amid the U.S.-Iraqi standoff.
Geopolitical Threats Leave OPEC Wary: In a statement, eight OPEC+ member nations, which previously announced additional voluntary adjustments, said they would continue to monitor adherence to the already agreed-upon production adjustments. The meeting was held via videoconferencing.
The eight nations, namely Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman, had raised production quotas by about 2.9 million barrels per day from April through December last year but anticipating a cool off in demand due to seasonality, they decided at a meeting in November to leave output unchanged from January 2026 through March.
The eight OPEC+ countries agreed to meet monthly to review market conditions, conformity, and compensation, with the next meeting scheduled for March 1. The 22-nation OPEC+ coalition is estimated to have produced roughly 46.5% of global output in 2025.
Data Source: EIA
Oil Rally Fizzles: Following the OPEC+ announcement, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for March delivery plunged over 5.5% to $61.51 a barrel in the Asian session on Monday.
After ending 2025 down nearly 20% at $57.42, oil gained 13.6% in January as supply concerns aggravated after the U.S. got involved in the internal anti-government protests in Iran. The Trump administration has threatened potential military strikes to protect the Iranian protestors, who have raised cudgels against the handling of the economy by the government. The U.S. was already on a warpath with Iran over the latter’s uranium enrichment program.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Al Khamenei has reportedly warned of a regional war if the Islamic nation is attacked by the U.S. or any other country.
U.S. President Donald Trump, however, signaled that a deal could be brokered between the two countries, partly responsible for the pullback in oil prices. According to Fox News, the president said, “You could make a negotiated deal that would be satisfactory with no nuclear weapons.” "They should do that, but I don't know that they will. But they are talking to us. Seriously talking to us."
Oil posted its first monthly gain in six months last week.
Where Is Crude Futures Headed? If oil futures do not hold support around the $61-$62 area. it could drop to the sub-$59 level. Further below, they have additional support around $56. The relative strength index (RSI), a momentum indicator, is in the neutral zone following oil futures’ recent pullback.
Source: TradingView
Oil might take a decisive direction when OPEC+ announces its production outlook for the nine months after April next month. The most important takeaway from Sunday’s meeting is the coalition remaining tight-lipped about the second quarter, Rystad Energy AS analyst Jorge Leon said, according to Bloomberg. “With rising uncertainty around Iran and US tensions, the group is keeping all options firmly on the table.”
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